Digital RiskEconomic Overview & Market Update
Q4 2023
The Digital Risk industry, which includes blockchain, web3, DeFi, and digital assets, experienced another volatile year in 2023. Notable players in the space, such as FTX and Silvergate Bank, suffered headline-grabbing collapses and brought the digital asset marketplace down with them. And, while these events caused turmoil in the crypto market cap and venture capital investment in the space, we end the year on the positive news of a much-anticipated Bitcoin ETF and possible regulatory clarity from the SEC in the coming year.
The insurance market continues to be challenging for digital risk companies to navigate. As the space matures and claims materialize, underwriters cautiously manage their capacity and exposure to contagion events. While there have been new entrants to the marketplace, there have also been carriers that have closed capacity for digital asset and blockchain industry companies. The result is a continued need for more diversity in options, and pricing remains elevated compared to other industries.
As we look to 2024, digital risk companies should continue to take aggressive steps toward managing their on-chain risks and transferring their off-chain risks where possible. We expect the insurance market to continue to mature and offer additional capacity, as well as see new coverage options emerge from existing carriers and new entrants.
There was no shortage of blockbuster headlines for the digital asset and blockchain in 2023, with few being positive. However, as the industry grows from its infancy, more and more consumers, investors, and institutions are recognizing the broader economic importance of digital assets.
Insurance coverage and pricing are reflective of past events. Ultimately, insurance availability and affordability are determined by the state of recent events. This is true for all industries, but especially so for emerging technology industries where vast troves of actuarial data are scarce. In 2023, the following events had direct impacts, for good or bad, on the insurance marketplace for digital risk companies.
These stories helped shape the narrative of the digital asset and blockchain industry in 2023. Underwriters鈥 perception helps determine the scope of coverage and pricing available and causes them to evaluate their portfolio to determine any unforeseen risks.
As such, some changes should be expected during upcoming renewals or market submissions. These include:
After hitting nearly $70,000 in November of 2021, 2022 ushered in a crypto winter for Bitcoin and almost every other cryptocurrency, with BTC bottoming out in November 2022 at around $15,000. In 2023, the market for Bitcoin was much improved. Still, off from all-time highs, BTC pricing has remained north of $25,000 since mid-year, with several notable spikes related to the expected spot ETF approvals.
For BTC Mining operations, 2023 was a year of improving processes and managing cash flow ahead of the upcoming 鈥渉alving鈥 鈥 the quadrennial event based on the source code of the Bitcoin blockchain that makes mining twice as tricky. It is also typically the start of the next bull market, with some experts anticipating a new all-time high of $100,000 or more. It will, however, be a challenge for institutional miners to weather the storm and consider consolidation or entry into other data center business models, such as High-Performance Computing (HPC).
The broader blockchain industry continued to mature in 2023. While the cryptocurrency market continued to stagnate, blockchain infrastructure and tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) became more mainstream. Notable players in the finance world, including J.P. Morgan4 and Citi5, launched new blockchain initiatives to bring tokenization and smart contracts into their finance capabilities.
Non-Fungible Tokens, or NFTs, rose to prominence in 2022 only to become a battered market that has yet to recover in 2023. However, NFT technology continues to gain widespread adoption. As layer 1 blockchains, such as Ethereum, Avalanche, Solana, Polkadot, etc., mature, they are increasingly supported by layer 2 blockchains that increase speed, efficiency, and lower energy consumption.
2022 saw one of the world鈥檚 largest centralized exchanges (CEX) fall with FTX. The collateral damage, however, extended far into 2023 and remains an issue for anyone operating in the DeFi/CeFi industry. DeFi has seen a major influx of capital in the months following FTX鈥檚 collapse, though the total market cap in the space remains suppressed below all-time high levels of 2022.
FTX was a watershed moment for CEX and ushered in a new wave of regulatory interest in the U.S. and E.U. Decentralized exchanges (DEX). Protocols are emerging as alternatives for users seeking more privacy, control, and security. DeFi protocols, such as options and derivatives trading platforms, spot exchanges, and lending platforms, continue to gain favor among investors and venture capitalists.
The Metaverse continues to grow in scale and scope and is no longer viewed as a video game technology, though young users are critical to the ecosystem. Governments worldwide have begun to adopt standards and frameworks for building metaverse economies. Tech giants in the U.S. continue to develop hardware and software to bring to life digital twin technology.
Gaming companies, especially user-generated content (UGC) gaming, were the first adopters of the Metaverse and virtual worlds and have the most robust business models to date for metaverse economies. In-game digital assets open new revenue possibilities and more engaging user experiences, such as social spaces and communities.
The insurance landscape for Digital Risk companies continues to improve. As more data becomes available, underwriters will continue looking for opportunities in the space and will build more bespoke products that are fit for purpose for the sector. New insurance options are entering the market regularly, including on-chain options.
It remains critical to be as transparent as possible with your broker and the insurance marketplace to unlock the best combination of coverage and cost. Brokers specializing in this space understand how to translate complex technology into simple terms that the market can understand. Keys to success with upcoming insurance renewals/placements include:
Start Early
Insurance placements in this space can take longer than other industries, often substantially so. Provide full information, completed application, and any requested supporting data to expedite the process.
Highlight Controls and Executive Experience
Insurers鈥 chief concerns for digital risks include cyber and board oversight. Having a solid cybersecurity program will impact coverage availability and affordability.
Work with Experts
The marketplace is fragile for Digital Risks. Understand your broker needs and how a broker can represent you based on their expertise in the space and market leverage. Poor coverage design is unlikely to perform correctly in the event of a claim.
As the digital asset and blockchain industries mature, the insurance market for them will also. Until then, it鈥檚 essential to prepare for the complex process of obtaining the right insurance program.
Garrett Droege
SVP, Director of Innovation + Digital Risk Practice Leader
Angela Thompson
Sr. Marketing Specialist, Market Intelligence & Insights